I have not written much in a while for a variety of reasons, however, the upcoming elections sure stirred my nerves enough for me to pick up writing again.
I have always been very interested in Nigeria politics across all levels, and have found myself several times at the forefront of various electoral activities since I was old enough to do so. Four years ago, I was going door-to-door doing election sensitization and getting people to come out to vote; finished voting and waited for each vote to be counted; I even went along with the officials to the local government office to monitor ballot box delivery and vote collation - I was that passionate. 8 years ago, we were huddled in a room monitoring vote counts, adding, simulating, anticipating … because we were eager for ‘Change’. The 2023 general elections are happening in 24 hours and for the first time in a long time, I do not care as much, maybe not at all.
As someone who has always been very involved in politics, not caring is a strange place to be … but as much as I’ve tried, I’ve not found it in me to feel any atom of enthusiasm toward this election and I think it is because I have a decent picture of how it is going to end - which is not the most pleasant or most welcome outcome.
However, I have come to accept that this is how elections work. I can write a book on how this election is going to turn out, as there’s nothing that will be shocking about the election results except there’s an act of God before Election Day.
Intentions don’t win elections, numbers and political structures do.
My biggest lessons about politics have come from personal experiences, including contesting for a position back in University, and when my Mum ran for office as a member of the house of assembly in Oyo State.
My Own Story: The year was 2011 when I decided to run for the position of Vice President in my department at OAU. I had an excellent manifesto, floored the debate, and campaigned fiercely, but I lost. People told me they couldn't vote for me for the flimsiest reasons - a recurring excuse being that I wasn't an OG member of the department because I moved from a different department and joined in my 2nd level - irrespective of whether I had better intentions for the department. In the days following my defeat, I cried for days because I was so passionate about the impact I wanted to make. The lesson I learned afterward has stayed with me ever since - good intentions do not guarantee a win, you must have the numbers to succeed.
When I think of the upcoming Presidential elections, despite the fact that out of the three major candidates, we can point to one who seems to have the best intentions, that victory seems unlikely - because he doesn't have the critical mass required (N.B - this is my assessment)
My Mum’s Story: In addition to being one of the best humans I know, my mum is a formidable politician who strongly believes that good people should be in power and get a chance to lead the transformation we so desperately need at all levels of government.
Two times, my mum has run for the State House of Assembly in Oyo state, and both times she lost. Probably the most striking one was the election that got my dad kidnapped right before the primaries (if you listened to my podcast interview with her, you'd have heard the story).
Anyway, a day before the election, she got a call telling her she was going to lose the primaries the following day despite the overwhelming support for her. She asked why, and the answer was that delegates had been sent to a place where they had to swear an oath by crossing guns and cutlasses before receiving a sum of money as a bribe. The man said …. "There's no doubt that they like you Ma and they know you'll do things differently, but you'll never be able to win - this is the way politics work in Nigeria".
I have political stories for days.
As much as we speak against vote buying and people selling their votes for peanuts, the truth is that most Nigerians are living in abject poverty and cannot care less about the future we are envisioning with a change in leadership, when they are still looking for what to eat. Therefore, yes - they will go where the money is - even if the amount is just 2k.
It is encouraging to see so many people getting their PVCs and being excited about voting, and I am looking forward to analyzing how this wave translates into numbers. My hope is that a lot of people recognize that Nigerian politics is complicated, and instead of reacting in faux rage when the elections are over because a certain candidate didn't win, we can continue to build on this momentum, and maybe in a few years we'll be lucky enough to get a president who represents the best of us.
I will always advocate that everyone vote their conscience, regardless of whether your candidate wins. We all have one vote and with that comes the right to vote for the candidate that we believe in.
Your vote is your voice! So, use your voice at the polls but most importantly, stay safe and get back home. Nigeria, as it is today, is not worth your blood.
Maybe someday I’ll have hope and be enthusiastic about Nigeria again, but for now, I can only hope that whoever wins the presidency at least leads us better than we have had for the last 8 years.
Happy Elections!
The complex nation called Nigeria. Impassioned reflection. I salute your grace and gift. It’s always a joy to read your thoughts. On this matter also you have excelled. One thing is common about a Nigerian each one of the 200m+ cares about the Country. I dare say Love.
The problem for me is not the few that run for office and desire to rule us but the whole. Especially the 100m adults as shown by Registered voters. They do not understand the problem or what they want as an individual. Neither are they clear that the power is in their hands and not the career politician.
Politics is a Career, it has a low barrier to entry but it’s a career. Rank is a big deal and you’d recognise this concept as a Legal mind. We the electorate are a momentary participant in the profession and they tease us with what we want to hear. We play our role and exit stage left. They carry on with their profession having seen us as a slight irritation they must endure. The issue comes when untested Politician wants to lead its seniors or leaders. The result is what will happen after 2.30pm tomorrow.
There will be Sunday morning and next weekend we will all return to our party circles with the hope that cash will flow again.
Hmmm… It’s really a shame that good intentions are not enough to win an election
…at this point, my prayer is that God have mercy on us as a nation / people and use whoever.